June has come to a close and with that we leave behind a very eventful 1st half of 2020. Most of us probably wish we could fast forward into 2021 as the pandemic has been felt by all in one way or another.
TLWM Financial Blog
We upgraded our business confidence indicator to yellow.
Every year we look forward to connecting with our clients and their families at the Holiday Brunch in December. Unfortunately, given the growing concerns around COVID-19 our venue has made the difficult decision to cancel all large events, including ours.
We have determined that rather than try to reschedule we will be canceling the event for 2020 given the ongoing uncertainty around coronavirus, potential risk of a second wave, and challenges finding a suitable venue. While this was a tough call to make our priority is the health and safety of all of our clients, families, and employees. We remain committed to keep the tradition going in the future and we look forward to celebrating it with you in 2021!
Sincerely Enzo T. Pellegrino and your Team at TLWM
We recently updated two indicators on our economic dashboard: Market Breadth and Market Sentiment.
The stock market rallied for a second straight month as the S&P 500 was up about 5% for May as many states began the process of “re-opening” the economy. (YCharts) The rally in stocks came as investors tried to balance both good and bad news. Good news came in the form of potential progress on a COVID-19 vaccine and therapies to treat the virus, monetary and fiscal stimulus around the globe, and anticipation of increased economic activity. The bad news came in the form of very challenging economic data which included ongoing jobless claims, a contracting economy, and an official unemployment rate of 14.7%. (YCharts)
We continue to be positioned cautiously within portfolios as we weigh the impact of both good and bad news. Our economic dashboard continues to flash warning signs which we believe are reflective of an ongoing recessionary environment justifying reduced risk for the time being. We continue to watch closely the following risks which we believe have the potential to lead to future volatility:
We recently downgraded our Leading Economic Index (LEI) indicator to red. We had moved this indicator to warning last month after the initial decline due to the COVID-19 pandemic. This indicator has further deteriorated at a rapid rate and we feel it should be downgraded again at this time.
We are another month into the COVID-19 pandemic and what a whirlwind it has been! So much has changed over the past month in not only our day to day lives, but also in the stock market as we’ve seen a much-needed rally. The S&P 500 was up over 12% in April and about 30% from the lows on March 23rd. (YCharts) While investors have been excited to see this move higher, we don’t believe that this rally has necessarily sounded the “all-clear” for stocks. As such, we have used this move higher to what we believe is our advantage and have continued to try to reduce risk within portfolios.
Despite stocks rallying, we saw historically weak economic data throughout April. We’ve highlighted a few data points below that demonstrate the impact of shutting down most of the economy and sheltering at home
We recently updated our dashboard by downgrading the leading indicators and market breadth signals to yellow.
Our everyday lives have changed dramatically over the last few weeks as we work together to minimize the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. We know these efforts are necessary, but they also have come at a cost.
Global economic growth has been slowing, the US economy likely will contract, and US stocks have entered a bear market. Big stock market moves, both up and down, have become the norm. In short, this has been a challenging period for many long-term investors, and you’re asking what’s next and what to do.
We recently updated our economic dashboard by downgrading the Market Technicals indicator to yellow. This indicator is driven by historical prices. As such, the recent market sell-off has had a negative impact on the underlying trend of the market.